Emerging Hot Spots

✦ DISCOVERED BY ORIONAIHarris, Nancy L., Elizabeth Goldman, Christopher Gabris, et al. 2017. “Using spatial statistics to identify emerging hot spots of forest loss.” _Environmental Research Letters_ 12 (2): 024012.  BiodiversityGlobal
Global

About this dataset

Due to the increasing size and complexity of global forest monitoring data sources, analysis and interpretation tools for this data are ever more important for intervention efforts, allowing for the quick identification and interpretation of significant forest loss. The emerging hot spots data set identifies the most significant clusters of primary forest loss between 2002-2025 at a country level basis, on a tropical scale. The term ‘hot spot’ is defined as an area that exhibits statistically significant clustering in the spatial patterns of loss. In this analysis, observed patterns of primary forest loss are likely to be attributable to underlying, as opposed to random, spatial processes. The different categories of hot spots are described below:  New: A location that is a statistically significant hot spot only for the year 2025 and has never been a hot spot before.  Sporadic: A location that is an on-again then off-again hot spot. Less than 22 of the 24 years have been statistically significant hot spots.  Intensifying: A location that has been a statistically significant hot spot for more than 21 of the 24 years (>90%), including the most recent year (2025). In addition, the intensity of clustering of high counts in each year is increasing.  Persistent: A location that has been a statistically significant hot spot for more than 21 of the 24 years (>90%), with no discernible trend indicating an increase or decrease in the intensity of clustering over time.  Diminishing: A location that has been a statistically significant hot spot for more than 21 of the 24 years (>90%). In addition, the intensity of clustering of high counts in each year is decreasing, or the most recent year (2025) is not hot.  The emerging hot spots analysis uses the annual Hansen et al 2013 tree cover loss data set between the years 2002 – 2025, the Turubanova et al. 2018 primary forest extent data set for the year 2001, and the ESRI ArcGIS Emerging Hot Spot Analysis geoprocessing tool. In this analysis, primary forest is defined as mature natural humid tropical forest cover that has not been completely cleared and regrown in recent history. Forest loss is defined as ‘stand replacement disturbance,’ or the complete removal of tree cover canopy at the Landsat pixel scale. The emerging hot spots analysis tool uses a combination two statistical measures, the Getis-Ord Gi\* statistic to identify the location and degree of spatial clustering of forest loss, and the Mann-Kendall trend test to evaluate the temporal trend over time.  The forest loss data used in this analysis has a user’s accuracy of 87% and a producer’s accuracy of 83.1% across the tropical biome. Additionally, because this analysis was run for individual countries, results are relative to the patterns and amount of loss in each country. Results should not be directly compared between countries - please use caution when viewing layer at a global scale.  To identify statistically significant clusters of primary forest loss on a country level basis

Documentation

This analysis was run for individual countries and therefore results are relative to the patterns and amount of loss in each country. Results should not be directly compared between countries - please use caution when viewing layer at a global scale

Imagery details

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Tree cover loss

- This data set, a collaboration between the Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) () lab at the University of Maryland (UMD), Google, USGS, and NASA, measures areas of tree cover loss across all global land (except - Antarctica and other Arctic islands) at approximately 30 × 30 meter resolution. The data were generated using multispectral satellite imagery from the Landsat 5 thematic mapper (TM), the Landsat 7 thematic mapper plus (ETM+), and the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensors. Over 1 million satellite images were processed and analyzed, including over 600,000 Landsat 7 images for the 2000-2012 interval, and more than 400,000 Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images for updates for the 2011-2022 interval, and additional images used for 2023, 2024 and 2025. The clear land surface observations in the satellite images were assembled and a supervised learning algorithm was applied to identify per pixel tree cover loss.  - In this data set, “tree cover” is defined as all vegetation greater than 5 meters in height, and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Tree cover loss is defined as “stand replacement disturbance” which is considered to be clearing of at least half of tree cover within a 30-meter pixel. The exact threshold is variable both through space and time, and is biome-dependent. Tree cover loss may be the result of human activities, including forestry practices such as timber harvesting or deforestation (the conversion of natural forest to other land uses), as well as natural causes such as disease or storm damage. Fire is another widespread cause of tree cover loss, and can be either natural or human-induced.  - This data set has been updated five times since its creation, and now includes loss up to 2025 (Version 1.13). The analysis method has been modified in numerous ways, including new data for the target year, re-processed data for previous years (2011 and 2012 for the Version 1.1 update, 2012 and 2013 for the Version 1.2 update, and 2014 for the Version 1.3 update), and improved modelling and calibration. These modifications improve change detection for 2011-2025, including better detection of boreal loss due to fire, smallholder rotation agriculture in tropical forests, selective losing, and short cycle plantations. Since the entire historical timeseries was not reprocessed with the updated methodology, time-series assessments should be performed with caution. Read more about the Version 1.13 update here:  and access on GEE here: .  - When zoomed out (< zoom level 13), pixels of loss are shaded according to the density of loss at the 30 x 30 meter scale. Pixels with darker shading represent areas with a higher concentration of tree cover loss, whereas pixels with lighter shading indicate a lower concentration of tree cover loss. There is no variation in pixel shading when the data is at full resolution (≥ zoom level 13).  - The tree cover canopy density of the displayed data varies according to the selection - use the legend on the map to change the minimum tree cover canopy density threshold.  Identifies areas of gross tree cover loss

Biodiversity · Hansen, M. C., P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. Justice, and J. R. G. Townshend. 2013. “High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change.” _Science_ 342 (15 November): 850–53. [doi: 10.1126/science.1244693](https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693). Data available from: [https://glad.earthengine.app/view/global-forest-change](https://glad.earthengine.app/view/global-forest-change).
WRI Google Drivers of Tree Cover Loss (1km)

This product shows the dominant driver of tree cover loss from 2001-2025. A driver is defined as the direct cause of tree cover loss, and can include both temporary disturbances (natural or anthropogenic) or permanent loss of tree cover due to a change to a non-forest land use (e.g., deforestation). The dominant driver is defined as the direct driver that caused the majority of tree cover loss within each 1 km cell over the time period. Classes are defined as follows:    - Permanent agriculture: Long-term, permanent tree cover loss for small- to large-scale agriculture.   - Hard commodities: Loss due to the establishment or expansion of mining or energy infrastructure.  - Shifting cultivation: Tree cover loss due to small- to medium-scale clearing for temporary cultivation that is later abandoned and followed by subsequent regrowth of secondary forest or vegetation.  - Logging: Forest management and logging activities occurring within managed, natural or semi-natural forests and plantations, often with evidence of forest regrowth or planting in subsequent years.   - Wildfire: Tree cover loss due to fire with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward. Fires may be started by natural causes (e.g. lightning) or may be related to human activities (accidental or deliberate).  - Settlements and infrastructure: Tree cover loss due to expansion and intensification of roads, settlements, urban areas, or built infrastructure (not associated with other classes).  - Other natural disturbances: Tree cover loss due to other non-fire natural disturbances (e.g., landslides, insect outbreaks, river meandering). If loss due to natural causes is followed by salvage or sanitation logging, it is classified as logging.    These data were produced in a collaboration between the World Resources Institute and Google DeepMind. The data were developed using a global neural network model (ResNet) trained on a set of samples collected through visual interpretation of very high-resolution satellite imagery. The model used satellite imagery (Landsat 7 & 8, Sentinel-2) and ancillary data to classify the seven driver categories. Overall accuracy of the model is 90.5%, with regional accuracies varying from 82.8% in Southeast Asia to 94.1% in Asia. Global per class producer’s and user’s accuracy are highest for the permanent agriculture, logging, and wildfire classes (over 90%), and generally lower for rarer classes, such as hard commodities, settlements and infrastructure, and other natural disturbances. A full description of the methods and accuracy statistics are available in the publication.     The data is also available on Google Earth Engine.  Shows the dominant driver of tree cover loss within each 1 km grid cell and the intensity of loss over the time period

Biodiversity · Sims, M.J., R. Stanimirova, A. Raichuk, M. Neumann, J. Richter, F. Follett, J. MacCarthy, K. Lister, C. Randle, L. Sloat, E. Esipova, J. Jupiter, C. Stanton, D. Morris, C. M. Slay, D. Purves, and N. Harris. 2025. “Global Drivers of Forest Loss at 1 Km Resolution.” _Environmental Research Letters_ 20 (7): 074027. [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/add606](https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add606).
Tree cover loss by dominant driver

This data set shows the dominant driver of tree cover loss from 2001-2023 using the following five categories: * **Commodity-driven deforestation:** Large-scale deforestation linked primarily to commercial agricultural expansion. * **Shifting agriculture:** Temporary loss or permanent deforestation due to small- and medium-scale agriculture. * **Forestry:** Temporary loss from plantation and natural forest harvesting, with some deforestation of primary forests. * **Wildfire:** Temporary loss, does not include fire clearing for agriculture. * **Urbanization:** Deforestation for expansion of urban centers. The commodity-driven deforestation and urbanization categories represent permanent deforestation, while tree cover usually regrows in the other categories. The data were generated using decision tree models to separate each 10 km grid cell into one of the five categories. The decision trees were created using 4,699 sample grid cells, and use metrics derived from the Hansen tree cover, tree cover gain, and tree cover loss, NASA fires, global land cover, and population count. Separate decision trees were created for each driver and each region (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Eurasia, Southeast Asia, Oceania), for a total of 35 decision trees. The final outputs were combined into a global map, which is then overlaid with tree cover loss data to indicate the intensity of loss associated with each driver around the world. All model code, reference samples, decision trees, and the final model are available in the Supplementary Materials of the paper. Shows the dominant driver of tree cover loss within each 10 km grid cell and the intensity of that loss for the time period 2001-2023.

Biodiversity · Curtis, P.G., C.M. Slay, N.L. Harris, A. Tyukavina, and M.C. Hansen. 2018. “Classifying Drivers of Global Forest Loss.” Science. [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6407/1108](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6407/1108)
Global integrated disturbance alerts

This dataset, assembled by Global Nature Watch, aggregates deforestation alerts from four alert systems (DIST-ALERT, GLAD-L, GLAD-S2, RADD) into a single, integrated disturbance alert layer. This integration allows users to detect deforestation and other vegetation loss faster than any single system alone, as the integrated layer is updated when any of the source alert systems are updated.   The source alert systems are derived from satellites of varying spectral and spatial resolutions. The 30 m GLAD Landsat-based alerts and DIST-ALERTs are up-sampled to match the 10 m spatial resolution of purely Sentinel-based alerts (GLAD-S2, RADD). Using the same 10 m grid avoids the double counting of overlapping alerts, which are instead classified at a higher confidence level, indicated by darker pixels.   Alerts are classified as high confidence when detected multiple times (two or more times for GLAD-L, GLAD-S2 and RADD, and four or more times for DIST-ALERT) by a single alert system. This can occur in areas and at times when only one alert system was operating. Where multiple alert systems are operating, alerts detected by multiple (two or more) of these systems are classified as highest confidence. With multiple sensors picking up change in the same location, we can be more confident that an alert was not a false positive and do not need to wait for additional satellite imagery to increase confidence in detected loss, thus providing more confident alerting faster than with a single system. Alerts from multiple systems which are within 180 days (6 months) of each other are considered a single event. In this case, the earliest date within that 180 day window will appear as the alert date in the integrated alert product. These will be considered highest confidence alerts. The date of the alert remains until another new alert (which is not within 6 months) in the same pixel is registered.   A study conducted by Wageningen University in collaboration with researchers from Global Nature Watch and University of Maryland's GLAD lab found that integrating alert systems results in faster detection of new disturbances by days to months, and also shortens the delay to increase confidence. Combined alerts have a higher producer's accuracy (fewer false negatives), but a lower user's accuracy (more false positives) since the commission errors from each system are combined; however, 'highest confidence' alerts, where more than one system detected the change, effectively eliminated false detections. Learn more: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d82   Monitor vegetation disturbance in near-real-time using integrated alerts from multiple alerting systems

Biodiversity · DIST-ALERT: Hansen, M.. OPERA Land Surface Disturbance Alert from Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 product (Version 1). 2024, distributed by NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center, [https://doi.org/10.5067/SNWG/OPERA_L3_DIST-ALERT-HLS_V1.001](https://doi.org/10.5067/SNWG/OPERA_L3_DIST-ALERT-HLS_V1.001) Pickens, A.H., Hansen, M.C., Song, Z. et al. Rapid monitoring of global land change. Nat Commun 16, 8948 (2025). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64014-9](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64014-9) GLAD-L Alerts: Hansen, M.C., A. Krylov, A. Tyukavina, P.V. Potapov, S. Turubanova, B. Zutta, S. Ifo, B. Margono, F. Stolle, and R. Moore. 2016. Humid tropical forest disturbance alerts using Landsat data. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (3). [https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034008](https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034008) GLAD-S2 Alerts: Pickens, A.H., Hansen, M.C., Adusei, B., and Potapov P. 2020. Sentinel-2 Forest Loss Alert. Global Land Analysis and Discovery (GLAD), University of Maryland. RADD Alerts: Reiche, J., Mullissa, A., Slagter, B., Gou, Y., Tsendbazar, N.E., Braun, C., Vollrath, A., Weisse, M.J., Stolle, F., Pickens, A., Donchyts, G., Clinton, N., Gorelick, N., Herold, M. 2021. Forest disturbance alerts for the Congo Basin using Sentinel-1. Environmental Research Letters. [https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd0a8](https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd0a8)
Tree cover loss due to fire

This data is produced by the Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) lab at the University of Maryland (UMD) and measures areas of tree cover loss due to fire compared to all other drivers across all global land (except Antarctica and other Arctic islands) at approximately 30 × 30-meter resolution. The data were generated using global Landsat-based annual change detection metrics for 2001-2025 as input data to a set of regionally calibrated classification tree ensemble models. The result of the mapping process can be viewed as a set of binary maps (tree cover loss due to fire vs. tree cover loss due to all other drivers).  In this data set, “tree cover” is defined as all vegetation greater than 5 meters in height and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Tree cover loss is defined as “stand replacement disturbance” which is clearing of at least half of tree cover within a 30-meter pixel. The exact threshold is variable both through space and time and is biome-dependent. Tree cover loss due to fire may be caused by natural or human-induced fire activity.  The analysis method for the base tree cover loss map on GNW that is used as input for this dataset has been modified in numerous ways to improve detection of boreal loss due to fire, smallholder rotation agriculture in tropical forests, selective logging, and short cycle plantations for data covering the 2011-2025 period. Due to these changes, comparing trends across the 2000-2010 and 2011-2025 periods should be performed with caution. You can read more about updates to the tree cover loss modeling process here.  When zoomed out (< zoom level 13), pixels of loss are shaded according to the density of loss at the 30 x 30-meter scale. Pixels with darker shading represent areas with a higher concentration of tree cover loss, whereas pixels with lighter shading indicate a lower concentration of tree cover loss. There is no variation in pixel shading when the data is at full resolution (≥ zoom level 13).  The tree cover density of the displayed data varies according to the selection - use the legend on the map to change the minimum tree cover canopy density threshold.  This data is available for download from UMD here and also accessible through Google Earth Engine using the following image IDs (view the download page from UMD for more information):  - Fire certainty: users/sashatyu/2001-2025\_fire\_forest\_loss  - Date of loss: users/sashatyu/2001-2025\_fire\_forest\_loss\_annual  Identifies areas of tree cover loss due to fires compared to all other drivers of tree cover loss

Biodiversity · Tyukavina, A., P. Potapov, M.C. Hansen, A.H. Pickens, S.V. Stehman, S. Turubanova, D. Parker, et al. 2022. “Global Trends of Forest Loss Due to Fire From 2001 to 2019.” Frontiers in Remote Sensing 3. [https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/frsen.2022.825190](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/remote-sensing/articles/10.3389/frsen.2022.825190/). Data available at [https://glad.umd.edu/dataset/Fire\_GFL/](https://glad.umd.edu/dataset/Fire\_GFL/).
GLAD alerts

This dataset, created by the [[GLAD]](http://glad.geog.umd.edu/) (https://glad.geog.umd.edu/) (Global Land Analysis & Discovery) lab at the University of Maryland and supported by Global Nature Watch, is the first Landsat-based alert system for tree cover loss. While most existing loss alert products use 250-meter resolution MODIS imagery, these alerts have a 30-meter resolution and thus can detect loss at a much finer spatial scale. These alerts are operational for land areas between 30 degrees north and south.  New Landsat 8 and 9 images are downloaded as they are posted online, assessed for cloud cover or poor data quality, and compared to the three previous years of Landsat-derived metrics (including ranks, means, and regressions of red, infrared and shortwave bands, and ranks of NDVI, NBR, and NDWI). The metrics and the latest Landsat image are run through seven decision trees to calculate a median probability of forest disturbance. Pixels with probability >50% are reported as tree cover loss alerts. The entire process is run in Google Earth Engine to ensure reliable updates and scalability. For more information on methodology, see the paper in Environmental Research Letters.  Alerts are not classified as high confidence until two or more out of four consecutive observations are labelled as tree cover loss. Alerts are removed from the dataset after four consecutive observations or more than 180 days if they are not classified as high confidence. You can choose to view only high confidence alerts in the menu, though keep in mind that using only high confidence alerts misses the newest detections of tree cover loss.  The GLAD-L alerts are available on \*\*Google Earth Engine\*\* with asset ID: projects/glad/alert/UpdResult  Monitor tree cover disturbance in near-real-time using Landsat imagery

Imagery and land cover · Hansen, M.C., A. Krylov, A. Tyukavina, P.V. Potapov, S. Turubanova, B. Zutta, S. Ifo, B. Margono, F. Stolle, and R. Moore. 2016. Humid tropical forest disturbance alerts using Landsat data. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (3). [https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034008](https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034008)

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