ICA Sudan, 2018 - Natural Shock Risk

This layer contains information about the final categorization resulting from the Integrated Context Analysis (ICA) performed in Sudan in 2018, showing the areas of convergence of high levels of food insecurity recurrence and major propensity to natural shocks (floods and droughts).

This layer contains information about the drought risk - by second-level administrative area - estimated during the Integrated Context Analysis (ICA) run in Sudan in 2018. Data source: HQ VAM Analysis of Chirps Rainfall Estimates (RFE), 1982-2017. The main indicators used for the analysis were the number of poor growing seasons observed in the time window of interest and the inter-annual rainfall variability.

This layer contains information about the flood risk - by second-level administrative area - estimated during the Integrated Context Analysis (ICA) run in Sudan in 2018. Data sources: UNEP/UNISDR, GAR 2013. The main indicators used for the analysis were the percentage of district surface at flood risk and the maximum expected frequency of flood events with a 100-year return period.

This layer contains information about the land degradation phenomenon - by second-level administrative area - observed for the purposes of the Integrated Context Analysis (ICA) run in Sudan in 2018. Data sources: HQ OSEP GIS Analysis of NASA MODIS 2001-2012, WorldClim 1970-2000, FAO and NASA SRTM Digital Elevation Model data. The main indicators used for the analysis were the average ecological changes observed between 2001-2005 and 2009-2013 and the percentage of erosion-prone surface.

This layer contains information about the numbers of food insecure people - by first-level administrative unit - estimated for the purposes of the Integrated Context Analysis (ICA) run in Mali in 2017. It should be noted that estimates of food insecure people were available only starting from 2014 onwards and, due to access constraints, some of the states were not covered by the survey. Data source: Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), 2014-2017. The main indicators used for the analysis were the percentage of food insecure population for long-term planning and the additional population figures in case of a major shock.

The ICA is a process of consultations supported by mapped-out data that produces a strategic plan describing where different combinations of programme themes are appropriate to achieve goals of reducing food insecurity and climate related shock risk. The ICA combines multi-year food security trends with natural shock risk data to highlight sub-national areas where different programme strategies make sense. Food security trend maps shows areas where safety nets can address regular food insecurity, and others where shocks make recovery more important. Climate-related natural shock risk maps show where DRR, preparedness and early warning efforts can complement food-security objectives. Atop this core foundation, mapped data on subjects including nutrition, gender, livelihoods and resilience can enrich theme-level strategic planning in which all pieces work together. The full group of ICA partners discuss these analytical results to arrive at strategic programmatic directions.